Weather Forecasts

Short Range Forecast

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
424 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Valid 00Z Mon May 20 2024 - 00Z Wed May 22 2024

...Increasing severe weather and excessive rainfall threats over
the Central U.S. into mid-week...

...Sweltering heat continues across South Florida and southern
Texas while expanding into the southern High Plains...

An energetic upper-level pattern will bring a couple rounds of
storms to the central U.S. over the next few days. Tonight, moist
return flow following a warm front moving northward through the
Plains and ahead of a dryline over the High Plains will provide
more than enough instability to trigger robust thunderstorm
development over the Central Plains. Increasing upper-level winds
will promote supercells with the threat of large hail and a few
tornadoes. Storms are also expected to grow upscale into one or
more organized convective systems, bringing a heightened threat
for potentially widespread, significant damaging winds later this
evening. As such, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Moderate Risk of severe weather (level 4/5). Storm chances will
shift northeastward into the Upper Midwest tonight and into the
Great Lakes by Monday following an initial upper-wave/accompanying
surface frontal system. An amplifying long-wave trough over the
West will help to enhance lee cyclogenesis over the High Plains
bringing another chance of storms to the Central Plains/Missouri
Valley by Monday evening. The Storm Prediction Center has included
a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for the threat of some more damaging
winds and large hail, and possibly a tornado. Some locally heavy
downpours will also be possible, particularly from the Central
Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight and the Central
Plains once again Monday, with an isolated chance of flash
flooding.

There will be a renewed threat for heavy rainfall and
thunderstorms over the Northern/Central Plains and Upper/Middle
Mississippi Valley on Tuesday as a deepening low pressure system
tracks across the region. The Storm Prediction Center issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of Severe Thunderstorms from eastern
Kansas to Southwest Wisconsin. There's also a Slight Risk (at
least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall for parts of southern and eastern
Minnesota, much of Wisconsin and northern Illinois. There are also
some isolated chances for severe weather and excessive rainfall
into northern Texas and eastern Oklahoma.

The active upper-level pattern will also bring some precipitation
chances to the Northern/Central Rockies and eastern Great Basin
over the next couple of days. Rainfall should generally remain
light to moderate, though some locally heavier storms will be
possible especially over Wyoming on Monday. Some heavy snow is
expected for much of the Absaroka and Bighorn mountains, where
between 6-12 inches, with isolated higher amounts, of snow could
fall on Tuesday. To the east, an area of low pressure lingering
just off the Atlantic coast of the Southeast with a trailing
frontal boundary moving through Florida will keep temperatures
below average on Monday. Storm chances will decrease tonight and
into the day Monday from north to south as the front pushes
southward, expected to clear the coast by Tuesday morning.

Intense Summer-like heat will continue over portions of South
Florida and from southern Texas into the southern High Plains the
next couple of days. Highs in the 90s with high humidity values
for areas closer to the coast will bring heat indices into the
105-110 degree range. While not as humid, temperatures will soar
into the 100s farther inland into west Texas/the southern High
Plains. Some record-tying/breaking temperatures are possible.
While not as hot, conditions will still be well above average more
broadly across the central/eastern U.S. Highs in 80s will be
common, even into more northerly locations like the Great Lakes
and the interior Northeast. One exception will be where onshore
flow keeps things a bit cooler along the East Coast, with highs in
the 60s and 70s expected from coastal New England south into the
Mid-Atlantic and coastal Carolinas. Highs over the Pacific
Northwest/northern Rockies will remain cool tonight behind a cold
front, with highs in the 50s and 60s. These cooler temperatures
will spread southward into the Great Basin Monday. Highs in the
80s and 90s are forecast south of the front over the Southwest.