Hydrologic Outlook 01/05/2025 14:56 for Alaska areas

ESFAJK There is increasing confidence in the mid and long range model solutions that a pair of atmospheric rivers will track into eastern half of the Gulf of Alaska and panhandle. The first feature will spread in its moisture band ( 1 to 3 inches ) and warming into the area Monday to Tuesday. Snow levels warming to around 3000 ft or higher. Rainfall event totals through around Wednesday/Thursday are 4-6 inches while NE Gulf coast may be closer to 8 inches of potential. Rain on top of new snow creating melt and run off will be the forecast challenge with the first system. The second feature is as strong or stronger and expected Thursday and Friday. Snow levels will rise higher (4000 to 5000 ft ) and additional rain ( 2 to 4 inches more ) will add more snowmelt. Streams will be rising quickly with the first system, and localized flooding due to drainage issues are possible. Significant river rises are more likely with this second event as the first event primed the river and soil conditions to possible produce bankful to flooding conditions.