Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026
Valid 12Z Fri Jul 10 2026 - 12Z Sun Jul 12 2026
...Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall
continue from the central Plains eastward to the east-central U.S.
near a slow-moving front...
...Heat is forecast to intensify over the Northern Plains to start
the weekend, while clouds and precipitation will keep daytime
temperatures cooler than normal from the central Plains to the
Mid-Atlantic...
A relatively sluggish frontal system will remain be the focus for
additional rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms to develop
from the central Plains through the east-central U.S.
Thunderstorm clusters are expected to traverse this general
corridor over the next couple of days, resulting in a couple of
inches of rainfall, with locally 4+ inches of heavy rainfall
mainly over the east-central U.S. where a Slight Risk (level 2/4)
of excessive rainfall is maintained through Sunday morning. These
thunderstorms will have difficulties crossing the Appalachians due
to slightly cooling air filtering in behind a backdoor front
across the Mid-Atlantic states. South of this corridor of
potential severe thunderstorms and heavy rain, heat and humidity
will prevail across the Deep South with a slightly higher chance
of thunderstorms near the Gulf Coast. High temperatures will
challenge some of the daily records from the Florida Peninsula to
portions of the Southeast where HeatRisk is forecast to reach
major to extreme levels this afternoon before gradually leveling
off this weekend when more clouds and precipitation arrive.
Farther west, from the Intermountain West to the norther Plains,
the first widespread and significant heat wave of the summer is
expected to develop today and intensify through this weekend.
Widespread triple digit high temperatures are expected by Saturday
afternoon, possibly reaching the 110 degree mark locally by Sunday
afternoon. This will lead to numerous daily high, monthly, and
even all-time temperature records. Extremely hot daytime highs
combined with potentially record-warm overnight lows will result
in increasing heat stress, leading to widespread major to locally
extreme HeatRisk. This heatwave will quickly become dangerous to
anyone without adequate cooling or hydration. Meanwhile in the
East, a brief and modest cooldown is expected will the arrival of
the cooler air mass from New England behind the aforementioned
backdoor front. Highs will begin to decrease slightly over the
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, albeit accompanied by the heavy
rain, before moving southward into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.
Temperatures at this point will return closer to seasonal
averages, with widespread maximums settling into the mid- to upper
80s.
Kong/Blanco-Alcala
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
