Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025
Valid 00Z Mon Mar 31 2025 - 00Z Wed Apr 02 2025
...Severe weather and heavy rainfall spread from the
Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on tonight to the East Coast
Monday...
...Ice storm continues across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes and Upstate New York/northern New England tonight...
...Unsettled weather arrives over the West Coast...
...Critical Fire Weather conditions likely for much of the
Southern High Plains into next week; much above average
temperatures across the South and East through Monday...
An energetic upper-level trough and accompanying surface low
pressure/frontal system moving through the central to eastern U.S.
will continue to bring the threat of severe weather, flash
flooding, and an ice storm along the northern tier the next couple
of days. Another day of moist return flow ahead of a trailing cold
front progressing eastward through the broader Mississippi Valley
as a pair of upper-level shortwaves pass overhead will encourage
the development of numerous, intense thunderstorms through
tonight. This has prompted an Enhanced Risk of severe weather
(level 3/5) from the Storm Prediction Center over the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys west through the Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley and into the ArkLaTex. Very large hail, significant
damaging winds (especially into the evening hours), and tornadoes,
a few of which could be strong, can all be expected. In addition,
more than sufficient moisture for heavy downpours as well as
increasing rainfall coverage as storms grow upscale into an
organized line into the evening hours will bring the risk of some
scattered instances of flash flooding. A Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/4) is in place to cover this threat across
portions of the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys. The
system will continue eastward Monday with another round of storms
expected ahead of the cold front from the Mid-Atlantic
southwestward through the Southeast to the central Gulf Coast.
Another Enhanced Risk of severe weather is in place for the threat
of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Some isolated
instances of flash flooding will also be possible, particularly
for northern portions of the Mid-Atlantic as well as for the Deep
South/central Gulf Coast.
To the north, a second round of wintry precipitation will continue
an ongoing ice storm across portions of the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes and Upstate New York/northern New England as warmer air
aloft overrides a significantly colder airmass just north of a
wavy quasi-stationary frontal boundary. Significant, potentially
destructive ice accumulations from freezing rain upwards of
0.25-0.5", locally even higher, will be possible through this
evening, which is on top of an initial round of freezing rain on
Saturday. These totals are most likely from northern Wisconsin
eastward through the UP and northern LP of Michigan as well as for
far Upstate New York and northern New England. Tree damage and
power outages will remain possible. A band of moderate to locally
heavy snowfall will also continue just to the north of the
freezing rain from far northern Wisconsin into the UP of Michigan
along Lake Superior, as well as in northern Maine. The heaviest
additional snowfall totals are most likely along Lake Superior in
the UP of Michigan, where another 4-6", locally higher, will be
possible. The wintry precipitation should wind down tonight,
lingering longest across northern Maine into early Monday.
A lower elevation rain/snow mix and higher elevation snow will
begin to wind down tonight for the Northern/Central Rockies and
adjacent High Plains as the upper-level trough passes overhead and
in the presence of upslope flow as a frontal boundary lingers
through the region. To the west, more significant precipitation
chances will start to ramp up into Monday for the West Coast as a
Pacific system approaches the region. Showers and even some
thunderstorms are expected along the coast from central California
northward through the Pacific Northwest, with the heaviest
rainfall focused along the coastal ranges near the
California/Oregon border. Additionally, heavy snowfall is expected
for higher mountain elevations, particularly for the northern
California Ranges and Sierra Nevada as well as the southern
Cascades. Snow totals of 1-2' will be possible, with higher totals
as much as 4-5' for the Sierra. Strong winds gusting up to 45-55
mph are also expected particularly for portions of southern
Oregon/northern California as well as southward through the Sierra
Nevada vicinity. Moisture will flow inland with the system as it
pushes into the Rockies Monday, bringing another round of lower
elevation rain/snow and higher elevation snow to the
Northern/Central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Some areas of
snow may begin to push further east into the Northern Plains by
early Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, the Storm Prediction Center
maintains a Critical Risk of fire weather (level 2/3) across much
of central/southern New Mexico into far west Texas as conditions
remain warm, very dry, and breezy. An Elevated threat will
continue into Monday, with another Critical Risk expected Tuesday.
Some intense downpours can be expected with thunderstorms across
the Florida Peninsula tonight, with an isolated threat for flash
flooding.
Much above average early Spring temperatures will continue for
portions of the eastern and southern U.S. ahead of the noted
Central U.S. storm system the next couple of days. Progression of
the cold front will bring much colder temperatures in the 40s and
50s to much of the Midwest/Ohio Valley beginning Monday, while
areas ahead of the front will remain warmer. Below average, chilly
temperatures will remain in place along the northern tier with
highs mainly in the 30s and 40s from the Northern Plains east into
the Upper Great Lakes and New England. A warm front lifting
northward will bring much warmer temperatures to New England on
Monday as highs jump into the 40s, 50s, and even some 60s. Highs
will generally be closer to average across the Pacific Northwest
into the Interior West with 50s and some 60s expected, as well as
through the Desert Southwest with highs in the 70s and 80s. Below
average temperatures are expected for California as the Pacific
System impacts the region, with highs mainly in the 50s to low
60s.
Kebede/Putnam
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
