Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1241 AM EDT Wed Jun 03 2026
Valid 12Z Wed Jun 03 2026 - 12Z Fri Jun 05 2026
...Showers and thunderstorms continue across much of the Plains
with heavy rain and severe weather concerns the next few days...
...A large area of high pressure will keep most of the eastern
half of the country dry through Thursday...
...Unseasonable warmth spreads from the Southwest and Upper
Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by the end of the
week...
A broad upper-level ridge will dominate across the Southwest into
central U.S. with a series of shortwave disturbances tracking
along northern U.S. through the remainder of the week. At the
surface, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary will drape across the
Plains and will move slowly into the Upper Midwest, serving as the
focus for convection. On Wednesday, strengthening southerly
low-level flow will transport rich Gulf moisture northward into
the Plains. With the combination of strong instability and
periodic upper-level impulses, expect repeated rounds of showers
and thunderstorms across the Plains and the southern Rockies.
Storm Prediction Center (SPC) also highlights that these storms
may become strong to severe and produce large hail and severe wind
gust, leading to Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms
across parts of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi
Valley. Training convection and high rainfall rates may also lead
to localized flooding concerns, which is highlighted through
Weather Prediction Center (WPC) excessive rainfall outlook with a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) over west Texas into New Mexico, as well
as the eastern Dakotas. In addition, a Marginal Risk (level 1/4)
has been highlighted for parts of Southern Rockies and much of the
Plains.
On Thursday, a secondary front will reinforce additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms across the Plains and Northern Rockies.
This will bring a continuation of flooding and severe
thunderstorms concerns. WPC continues a Marginal Risk of excessive
rainfall across portions of the Plains, Upper Midwest, and Texas
and SPC expands the Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from the
Northern Plains into Northern Nebraska. Moreover, a stationary
front over the Gulf Coast and Florida will bring some diurnal
convection over the next few days.
Farther east, an expansive surface high pressure centered over
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic will maintain generally dry and
stable conditions across much of eastern U.S. through Thursday.
Temperatures will mostly range in the 70s to 80s over the east,
which will be above normal for the Northeast. Over into the
Southwest temperatures will also trend above normal with highs
climbing into the low to mid 100s. As showers develop over New
Mexico and Texas, temperatures will trend 10-15 degrees below
normal with highs in the 80s through Thursday.
Oudit
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
